- Democratic Presidential candidate Senator Hillary Clinton during her victory speech after the New Hampshire Primary on January 8, 2008.
With all of the major news agencies reporting a double-digit lead in the polls for Sen. Barack Obama, Sen. Clinton pulled a major upset by squeaking out a 6,000 vote (with 70% of the precincts reporting) win in the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday, January 8, 2008. This comes a mere 5 days after Obama shocked THE WORLD with a substantial win in the Iowa caucuses. All of the news organizations are now scrambling to explain how they could've gotten the polling numbers so wrong, but they tend to forget that close to 45% of the voters in New Hampshire are independents with no party or candidate affiliations... and they go out to vote!
This win is a big boost to the Clinton campaign which was reeling after the Iowa loss: there have been strategy changes, rumors of staff reorgs, and Bill Clinton's role was altered in the Granite State.
This "loss" is a minor setback to the Obama campaign since he has been trailing for a majority of the campaign season, but the big Iowa win may be viewed by some as an aberration. Clinton nosed ahead when it really counted, but both candidates will probably receive the same number of delegates since her win was so slim (only 3%).
plez sez: i'm stunned! i've been riveted to C-SPAN coverage since last thursday's iowa caucus and all day they have been reporting about Obama's 10 point lead in the polls.
i'm shocked by the outcome, but not surprised because New Hampshire (like Iowa) is a different kind of political bird: the biggest block of voters are Independent and they can vote for any candidate (unlike other states that have registered democrats and republicans). the way the electorate is situated in the state, there was no way that they could accurately poll the likely voters.
call it sour grapes, but my distaste for hillary (and all things clinton) has only been magnified by the last couple of days in new hampshire:
the manufactured sympathy she received when edwards and obama "teamed up" on hillary during saturday night's democratic debate, even though she is the one who "stole" the Change Strategy that Obama has been trumpeting since Day 1. bill clinton's name calling attack on Obama in response to a question from the audience. hillary clinton's bullsh*t emotional breakdown & crocodile tears on the eve of the primary, which just goes to show that these people (the clintons) will say or do ANYTHING to get elected. her continued touting of her 35 years of experience when her ass has only been in the Senate for one and a half terms... Obama has double that time in elected office when you factor in his time in the Illinois State House and his grassroots community work.
with this loss, it is going to be tough going for Obama in the upcoming nevada primary, but i'm certain that he'll rebound to take south carolina. with the volatile nature of this campaign, it'd be folly to predict what will happen on Super Tuesday, but i can only hope that the voters will come to their senses in the coming weeks and see hillary clinton for what she is: a calculating politician with little or no conviction.
plezWorld will NOT be casting a vote for hillary clinton in either the georgia primary (on Super Tuesday) nor during the general election in november (if heaven forbid she's the democratic candidate).
I got one better for you...I won't be voting for her in the general election either.
ReplyDeleteThis country needs reall change and that's either Obama or Edwards NOT Clinton.
So does this mean we'll have Bus-Clinton-Clinton-Bush-Bush-Clinton and that's doesn't count the years as Bush as Vice President...
Something's gotta give.
Obama will still win this thing, hands down.
ReplyDeleteHillary played her trump card(crocodile tears)too early in this thing. I just hope Obama (and all black folks) don't pull out the race card at all or at least until the general election when it might be necessary. I've already seen some black bloggers blaming the fact that Barack lost ground in NH due to race and not due to people:
-voting for Clinton insted of Edwards
-independents assuming Barack would win in a landslide thus voting republican
-the the final poll was taken before the debate where Obama was, frankly, dull.
Win at all costs, but like my wife said this morning "I don't want to see the president crying".
jj,
ReplyDeletewe have to break the cycle of Bushes and Clintons, we just have to! i cannot see supporting hillary clinton in november (if it comes to that)... but i can't see voting for romney nor mccain, either.
...a few months ago, i predicted that it would be hillary & romney in the general election. if that is the case, i'll have to go with an independent or libertarian candidate.
david,
ReplyDeletei agree. it would be a mistake to play the race card in NH, which has like 13,000 Black people (around 1%): obama came in a virtual tie with hillary (3% difference)!
keep in mind, her win is only shocking because she was predicted to lose. the same reason why obama's win in iowa was such a shock.
i also agree with several of your points in your assessment of the race:
* there is no telling who all those Independents voted for (and with 45% of the voters that's a big enough bloc to swing a vote ANYWHERE).
* like you, it seemed like Obama lost some of his "energy" as the weekend wore on... i'm sure he gets tired of giving the same damn speech OVER & OVER & OVER & OVER again... i must've heard it at least 3 times over the weekend.
* Obama is excellent with a stump speech, but he didn't do very well at the debate on saturday night. and hillary was desparate on saturday night as she continued to see her numbers drop.
* Hillary's "crying bit" came at the right time in the campaign, just close enough to the voting such that those swing voters took that emotion into the voting booth with them... in hindsight, you can tell that "her emotional breakdown" was some BULLSH*T, but it is too late. fortunately, she won't be able to use that PLOY again during the campaign... that was a "one time" thing!
crocodile tears= some bullshit
ReplyDeleteWell, at least you get a primary!
ReplyDeletelol
L
I hate that - ' playing the race card'.
ReplyDeleteLook, calling it for what it is - The Bradley Effect- isn't playing the race card.
When the polls say that you're going to vote for Candidate X, who is Black...
And, they come back something altogether different - less.
That IS the Bradley Effect, and if you think that's playing the 'race card'. No, the ' race card' was already dealt when folks LIED about who they were going to vote for.
rikyrah,
ReplyDeletethanks for illuminating The Bradley Effect ... i thought i heard it mentioned on C-SPAN earlier today. upon reading more about it, i would still contend that Obama's loss can be mainly attributed to the huge numbers of Independents in new hampshire.
Rikyrah:
ReplyDeleteBeing the educated "white man" I am I am fully aware of the Bradley Effect, but it was not in play here. New Hampshire voters are a strange breed (no pun intended about inbreeding,lol, in Mass. we think all people who live in NH are related). They take their vote so seriously that they consider it an insult when asked who they'll vote for or you they did vote for.
When you have a state that is all white that votes the exact PERCENTAGE predicted by the pollsters, then I see any gripeing being the 'race card'. Hillary benifited from the 40% of democrats that said pre-vote that they were undecided. As you know Hillary has led every poll taken with democrats, as Obama has with independants. Hillary got the majority of undecided with her "crocodile tears", plus some from Edwards. Obama got the percentage that was predicted, on the nose! 38%.
Is there a Bradley Effect? Seems so, but don't tell me that there aren't a ton of Black voters that will vote for Barack based soley on his skin color. People tend to vote for their own whether it be Irish voting for Irish, Black voting for Black, Women voting for Women (ala Hillary), but it seems that for Barack to have done so well in white bread states such as IOWA and NH, then MOST white folk have no problem voting for who they think will do they best job regardless of skin color(or gender for that matter). If Black voters start "belly acheing" about racism in NH the fact is that Barack got 9delegates and Hillary only got 9. Sounds like "belly acheing" when the polls taken pre Iowa had Barack losing both Iowa and NH by quite a bit. Where was the Bradley Effect there? Barack won Iowa.
You don't like "the race card" reference? Well don't insinuate race into this thing until there is a reason to and I beleive that at some point, especially in the general election, there will be a time and place for the race card.
I was disappointed that Barack didn't trounce the field in NH, but save the 'race card' for when it might be needed.
I really don't think it was an upset in the first place. Clinton has been leading the democratic charge from day one. What Obama did was an upset, what Clinton did was not. Especially not in New Hampshire where over the summer my brother was forced to leave earlier than planned due to people that didn't want to serve him and cops that really wanted to serve him. I'm just going to do my part to make sure Obama gets the nod here in NYC which by all accounts is still Clinton country.
ReplyDelete