Obama Not Really Hurt by Wright

An op-ed piece and an article in The New York Times over the past couple of days show that Obama's support among Democratic voters is not deteriorating as badly as is being portrayed in the media. The Clintonistas and the media have been crowing about Obama's loss of support since the Rev. Wright incident. As much as Obama has been trying to move past the divisive rhetoric of the Wright brouhaha, the media and Hillary Clinton have been keeping it at the top of broadcasts for the past five weeks.

New York Times columnist Charles Blow wrote about a "Blacklash" in his May 3rd op-ed piece about the Democratic nomination contest. Excerpts from the op-ed piece follows:

The rhetoric appears to be trafficking in old fears and historic stereotypes. The unspoken (and confusing) characterization of Obama is that he’s militant yet cowardly; uppity yet too cool for school.

The question is this: Have white Democrats soured on Obama? Apparently not. Although his unfavorable rating from the group is up five percentage points since last summer in polls conducted by The New York Times and CBS News, his favorable rating is up just as much. While a favorable opinion doesn’t necessarily translate into a vote, this should still give the Clintons (and the superdelegates) pause. Electability cuts both ways.

Many blacks are aghast that their extraordinary support of Bill Clinton in the past would be repaid by the Clintons with racial innuendo (in a Times/CBS News poll after the salacious 1998 Starr report was released, his unfavorable rating among whites climbed to 52 percent; among blacks it was only 10 percent). [Many] who stood by him then now apparently feel betrayed.

Recent polls by The New York Times and CBS News show that Hillary Clinton's support has eroded with the Black community far more than Barack Obama's support among white Democrats. The graphic below shows Hillary's support with Black Democrats has eroded by over 35 percentage points since last summer and took a real nosedive after the primary season began this year. In contrast, over the same time period, Obama's support among white voters has risen by 5 percentage points.

Each candidate has a core constituency that is needed for the election in November: Clinton's working class whites and Obama's Blacks and affluent whites. After the nominee is selected in Denver, the Democratic Party is going to have to do a huge PR campaign to bring the other's voters into the fold for the fall election.

Excerpts from The New York Times article on Rev. Wright follows:

A majority of American voters say that the furor over the relationship between Senator Barack Obama and his former pastor has not affected their opinion of Mr. Obama, but a substantial number say that it could influence voters this fall should he be the Democratic presidential nominee, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News Poll.

At the same time, an overwhelming majority of voters said candidates calling for the suspension of the federal gasoline tax this summer were acting to help themselves politically, rather than to help ordinary Americans. Mr. Obama’s rival for the Democratic nomination, Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, has made the suspension of the gas tax a centerpiece of her campaign in recent days.

In the survey, taken in the days leading up to the primaries on Tuesday in Indiana and North Carolina, Americans were divided over the merits of the gasoline-tax suspension, which has also been backed by the presumptive Republican nominee, Senator John McCain, and condemned by Mr. Obama as political gimmickry.

Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Obama spent the final Sunday before the two primaries debating the gas-tax holiday and other issues on morning talk shows and in events across Indiana.

Read the entire New York Times op-ed piece about the graphic here.

Read the entire New York Times article about Rev. Wright's affect on Obama's support here.


plez sez: i'm not a big fan of polls and celebrity endorsements. and even though the poll above doesn't reflect a loss in support, one would have to be deaf and dumb to believe that there was no loss based on Obama's performance in the pennsylvania primary. and if he was such a hot commodity, then he would easily win the primaries in Indiana and North Carolina this week.

i still contend that Obama is the strongest democratic candidate, but i cannot be sure that the Clintonistas don't have another couple of tricks up their sleeve to grab the nomination at the convention.

if Obama is not the democratic candidate against john mccain, then john mccain will be the next president. i'm not saying that Obama is a shoo-in against mccain, but i KNOW billary will never win because more democrats won't be voting for hillary than won't be voting for Obama!

Hillary Wins Pennsylvania

With her hopes of gaining the Democratic nomination fading with each successive day, Hillary Clinton's campaign limped out of Pennsylvania with a win over rival Barack Obama.

She is behind in the delegate count. She is behind in popular vote. She is behind in total states won. She is behind in money (she wasn't five minutes into her acceptance speech before she was groveling for contributors at her website). And even with this win, she gets no closer to winning the delegate race. But she's going to hang in there and fight on... Billary has been waiting eight years to return to Washington and they're not going to let a little thing like being behind in the race stop them.

Billary will not drop out of the race, she will forge on to Indiana and North Carolina for their primaries in two weeks. And when she loses those, she will still forge on until the last primary in June.

Read about the Pennsylvania primary here.


plez sez: the longer this campaign continues, the deeper the rift between clinton supporters (working class whites) and Obama supporters (Blacks & affluent whites). and more importantly, the longer this race continues, the more likely that one's supporters will not vote for the other in november, thus guaranteeing john mccain a cake walk to the presidency. as groundbreaking as this race has become (white woman vs. Black man), it is also fracturing the democratic party into billary democrats and Obama democrats. will one be able to energize the other's supporters to vote in november?

hillary won most of the big states and Obama won the rest. but democrats usually win the big states, it's the small states that elected george bush in 2000 and 2004. the democrats best chance to win the white house will be to ride Obama's crossover appeal and win some states that have been red in the last two election cycles: north carolina, georgia, virginia, alabama, mississippi, colorado, etc. big states like pennsylvania, california, illinois, and new york will vote for democrats (like they have in the last two election cycles).

mark my words... if billary stays in the race until june, the party will be in such disarray that i don't think either candidate will be able to beat mccain in november.