Quote of the Day - January 9, 2008

“Let's give America the comeback that New Hampshire has given me."
- Democratic Presidential candidate Senator Hillary Clinton during her victory speech after the New Hampshire Primary on January 8, 2008.

With all of the major news agencies reporting a double-digit lead in the polls for Sen. Barack Obama, Sen. Clinton pulled a major upset by squeaking out a 6,000 vote (with 70% of the precincts reporting) win in the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday, January 8, 2008. This comes a mere 5 days after Obama shocked THE WORLD with a substantial win in the Iowa caucuses. All of the news organizations are now scrambling to explain how they could've gotten the polling numbers so wrong, but they tend to forget that close to 45% of the voters in New Hampshire are independents with no party or candidate affiliations... and they go out to vote!

This win is a big boost to the Clinton campaign which was reeling after the Iowa loss: there have been strategy changes, rumors of staff reorgs, and Bill Clinton's role was altered in the Granite State.

This "loss" is a minor setback to the Obama campaign since he has been trailing for a majority of the campaign season, but the big Iowa win may be viewed by some as an aberration. Clinton nosed ahead when it really counted, but both candidates will probably receive the same number of delegates since her win was so slim (only 3%).

plez sez: i'm stunned! i've been riveted to C-SPAN coverage since last thursday's iowa caucus and all day they have been reporting about Obama's 10 point lead in the polls.

i'm shocked by the outcome, but not surprised because New Hampshire (like Iowa) is a different kind of political bird: the biggest block of voters are Independent and they can vote for any candidate (unlike other states that have registered democrats and republicans). the way the electorate is situated in the state, there was no way that they could accurately poll the likely voters.

call it sour grapes, but my distaste for hillary (and all things clinton) has only been magnified by the last couple of days in new hampshire:

the manufactured sympathy she received when edwards and obama "teamed up" on hillary during saturday night's democratic debate, even though she is the one who "stole" the Change Strategy that Obama has been trumpeting since Day 1.

bill clinton's name calling attack on Obama in response to a question from the audience.

hillary clinton's bullsh*t emotional breakdown & crocodile tears on the eve of the primary, which just goes to show that these people (the clintons) will say or do ANYTHING to get elected.

her continued touting of her 35 years of experience when her ass has only been in the Senate for one and a half terms... Obama has double that time in elected office when you factor in his time in the Illinois State House and his grassroots community work.

with this loss, it is going to be tough going for Obama in the upcoming nevada primary, but i'm certain that he'll rebound to take south carolina. with the volatile nature of this campaign, it'd be folly to predict what will happen on Super Tuesday, but i can only hope that the voters will come to their senses in the coming weeks and see hillary clinton for what she is: a calculating politician with little or no conviction.

plezWorld will NOT be casting a vote for hillary clinton in either the georgia primary (on Super Tuesday) nor during the general election in november (if heaven forbid she's the democratic candidate).

Clinton & Romney Top Early Iowa Polls

The Des Moines Register reports that an American Research Group poll of likely caucus-goers (+/- 4%) conducted this week give Hillary Clinton and Mitt Romney the lead in early polls for their respective party presidential nominations. The Iowa Caucuses will be held on Thursday, January 3rd, 2008, the earliest date ever for such an event.

Democrats:
27% - Hillary Clinton
21% - Barack Obama
20% - John Edwards
12% - Bill Richardson

Republicans:
26% - Mitt Romney
24% - Mike Huckabee
11% - Rudy Giuliani
11% - Fred Thompson
10% - John McCain

Two other Iowa polls show similar results. With just under 2 months before the first primary votes of the 2008 presidential election year cycle, Clinton and Romney are nursing slim leads in each of their respective races. The importance of the Iowa Caucus is mainly because the "straw poll" is the first votes of the election cycle, but the winner of the caucus is not necessarily the eventual party nominee.

For Democrats: George McGovern lost to Edmund Muskie in 1972, Jimmy Carter lost to "Uncommitted" in 1976, Michael Dukakis came in third place in 1988, Bill Clinton came in third place in 1992. For Republicans: Ronald Reagan lost to George H. W. Bush, and Vice President George H. W. Bush came in third behind Bob Dole & Pat Robertson in 1988! So the Iowa Caucus is more symbolic of the beginning of the election year rather than a prognosticator of the eventual party nominee.

For more Iowa Caucus information.


plez sez: all of the polls (democrats & republicans) show tight races and it doesn't appear that losing the Iowa Caucus will do much damage to a candidate's ability to win the party nomination. the new hampshire primary is a better indicator of the eventual nominee. jimmy carter and michael dukakis won the new hampshire primary, and bill clinton moved into second place in new hampshire (an ascent that ended with him being elected president). on the republican side, after 1972, the eventual nominee won in new hampshire except for bob dole in 1996 and george w. bush in 2000.

i'm still a strong supporter of barack obama because of his opposition to the war in iraq, and his message of change and hope for this country. i will vote for barack obama in the georgia democratic primary. i feel that hillary clinton lacks conviction and will tend to be a populist who governs via poll results... i'm not that crazy about populists (she did vote to go to war with iraq)! john edwards is hanging around and he has a chance to surprise the field with an early win in iowa or new hampshire.


i'm a bit perplexed that john mccain is still hanging in there with his low numbers and lack of money. he'll probably drop out after finishing no higher than fourth place in iowa or new hampshire. and fred thompson is probably kicking himself for waiting so late to get into the republican race, he brought nothing new to the table with his late entry.

it will be interesting to see what rudy guiliani does in the first 2 or 3 primaries, since other than mitt romney, he's probably the only other republican who will be able to beat clinton.

plez predicts: mitt romney will win the 2008 presidential election over hillary clinton in a very close electoral vote; her negatives and bill's baggage will energize the GOP voters enough to go out to vote against her. it appears that this will be the third straight presidential election that will come down to the winner of one or two swing states (like ohio, tennessee, or florida).

Run, Obama, Run! - Part 2

On Sunday, December 10, 2006, Sen. Barack Obama was in New Hampshire speaking to sold out crowds. He cleverly test drove some of his "thoughts" on what is necessary to move America forward, preached a fresh approach to politics, and took that crucial first step to seeking the Democratic Presidential nomination in 2008. Click this link to hear his speech in front of a Democratic audience in its entirety.

plez sez: Run, Obama, run! *smile*