Saturday, November 17, 2007

Clinton & Romney Top Early Iowa Polls

The Des Moines Register reports that an American Research Group poll of likely caucus-goers (+/- 4%) conducted this week give Hillary Clinton and Mitt Romney the lead in early polls for their respective party presidential nominations. The Iowa Caucuses will be held on Thursday, January 3rd, 2008, the earliest date ever for such an event.
27% - Hillary Clinton
21% - Barack Obama
20% - John Edwards
12% - Bill Richardson

26% - Mitt Romney
24% - Mike Huckabee
11% - Rudy Giuliani
11% - Fred Thompson
10% - John McCain
Two other Iowa polls show similar results. With just under 2 months before the first primary votes of the 2008 presidential election year cycle, Clinton and Romney are nursing slim leads in each of their respective races. The importance of the Iowa Caucus is mainly because the "straw poll" is the first votes of the election cycle, but the winner of the caucus is not necessarily the eventual party nominee.

For Democrats: George McGovern lost to Edmund Muskie in 1972, Jimmy Carter lost to "Uncommitted" in 1976, Michael Dukakis came in third place in 1988, Bill Clinton came in third place in 1992. For Republicans: Ronald Reagan lost to George H. W. Bush, and Vice President George H. W. Bush came in third behind Bob Dole & Pat Robertson in 1988! So the Iowa Caucus is more symbolic of the beginning of the election year rather than a prognosticator of the eventual party nominee.

For more Iowa Caucus information.

plez sez: all of the polls (democrats & republicans) show tight races and it doesn't appear that losing the Iowa Caucus will do much damage to a candidate's ability to win the party nomination. the new hampshire primary is a better indicator of the eventual nominee. jimmy carter and michael dukakis won the new hampshire primary, and bill clinton moved into second place in new hampshire (an ascent that ended with him being elected president). on the republican side, after 1972, the eventual nominee won in new hampshire except for bob dole in 1996 and george w. bush in 2000.

i'm still a strong supporter of barack obama because of his opposition to the war in iraq, and his message of change and hope for this country. i will vote for barack obama in the georgia democratic primary. i feel that hillary clinton lacks conviction and will tend to be a populist who governs via poll results... i'm not that crazy about populists (she did vote to go to war with iraq)! john edwards is hanging around and he has a chance to surprise the field with an early win in iowa or new hampshire.

i'm a bit perplexed that john mccain is still hanging in there with his low numbers and lack of money. he'll probably drop out after finishing no higher than fourth place in iowa or new hampshire. and fred thompson is probably kicking himself for waiting so late to get into the republican race, he brought nothing new to the table with his late entry.

it will be interesting to see what rudy guiliani does in the first 2 or 3 primaries, since other than mitt romney, he's probably the only other republican who will be able to beat clinton.

plez predicts: mitt romney will win the 2008 presidential election over hillary clinton in a very close electoral vote; her negatives and bill's baggage will energize the GOP voters enough to go out to vote against her. it appears that this will be the third straight presidential election that will come down to the winner of one or two swing states (like ohio, tennessee, or florida).


Francis L. Holland Blog said...

Wow, Plez, thanks for providing all of this information, but it's way to early to predict defeat in 2008. If the Afrospear got one-tenth as many people to the polls in Ohio or Florida as it got to Jena, LA, then Clinton would win instead of Romney. Instead, you're predicting that the AfroSpear will fail to do so, or that the AfroSpear will fail to even try.

You didn't discuss at all the role of Blacks and the AfroSpear. Are we that politically irrelevant or apathetic? Isn't our 90% voting record against Republicans and our hate for their policies and politicians at least as relevant as white Republicans distaste for Hillary Clinton?

Isn't there anything about having a Mormon president that will energize Blacks to go to the polls? How about the fact that the Mormons didn't even permit Blacks to be members until the 1970's?

Let's not propose that we are irrelevant and/or impotent before we even lift a finger or spend a single sleepless night brainstorming in our own defense.

plez... said...


thanks for providing your ample perspective, maybe this will be an impetus for you to return to US and rally the AfroSpear against the Republicans in 2008?!? *smile*

...and since i totally dropped the ball on the opportunity to discuss the role of Blacks and the AfroSpear, i'm certain that YOU are going to pick up the ball for me. *smile*

i have no idea how the thought that a mormon may become president will energize an apathetic populous. and i think that it's pretty irrelevant that mormons didn't permit Black members until 1970, if memory serves correctly, a VERY LIBERAL Massacheusetts (with the only Black governor in the US) elected romney to be their governor a few years ago!

and with approximately 13% of the population and more than likely, far less of a percentage of the voting population, i'm sure Black folk will play a small role in electing the next president. and i can assure you that one-tenth of the Jena march crowd (at around 20,000 people) will not move the needle much in either Ohio or Florida!

i am a member of the AfroSpear, but that is not the singular focus of this blog... i'm sorry! but i am happy to include those whose perspective speaks to the power of and wonder of the AfroSpear.